Despite the challenges posed by tariffs and other economic factors, I anticipate a recovery in Guelph’s condo market in 2025. The combination of lower mortgage rates and recent adjustments to mortgage rules in 2024 should unlock demand from homebuyers who were previously priced out. However, these buyers may encounter longer loan terms, higher interest costs over time, and larger down payments as home prices continue to rise.

Millennials, many of whom are first-time homebuyers, are currently the driving force behind demand. With the decline of remote work, this group is expected to prioritize proximity to their workplaces, leading to increased sales activity in larger urban areas. Additionally, repeat buyers, including those looking to upgrade to better homes, are likely to re-enter the market as mortgage rates decrease. Homeowners who purchased during the pandemic and face mortgage renewals between 2025 and 2027 may reassess their housing needs, further contributing to an uptick in sales.

Locally, we’re beginning to see signs of a strong spring market. Many detached homes are receiving multiple offers and selling slightly above the asking price, while the condo market remains somewhat slower. In January, Guelph saw only 95 MLS sales, with an average sale price of $775,000. Homes spent an average of 36 days on the market, and sellers received 98.8% of their asking price. Heading into February, there are 257 active listings, which is relatively low for a market that’s heating up ahead of spring.

Although the market took some time to pick up in January, I expect February to get off to a strong start. Buyers can anticipate competition for many listings, although most sales will likely remain close to asking price.