Ontario & B.C. Remain the Weakest Links in Canada’s Condo Market
British Columbia and Ontario continue to lead as the softest housing markets in the country, and they’re the only provinces where home prices are expected to decline this year. With listings sitting well above long-term averages, buyers have more options and greater leverage at the negotiating table.
Looking ahead, price growth in these provinces is likely to remain weak through much of 2026, even as sales pick up on the back of improving job markets, renewed buyer interest, and ample inventory.
In the GTA, the condo market remains a key area of softness. While sales activity has shown some improvement recently, listings are still highly elevated. Further price reductions may be needed before we see more balanced conditions. That said, a sharp drop in new condo completions and better affordability—thanks to price declines—are helping to ease the pressure. Notably, most of the price gains seen during the pandemic in the GTA condo segment have now been wiped out.
Sales for Guelph condos totaled 27 units in September, a decrease of 31% from September 2024. The average sale price decreased 5% year over year to $591,015. Sellers received 98% of asking on average however that’s after any price reductions. The average time on market decreased 9% from September 2024, to 36 days but the number of listings that were terminated without selling (62) increased by a whopping 264% year over year. Overall, September was a disappointing start to the fall real estate market. Going into October, there are 255 active condo listings which, if you do the math, represents over 9 months worth of inventory. An influx of fall listings will provide buyers with even more selection.
